Next week, the Congress returns from its Holiday recess to an agenda that will build upon the energy and efficiency bill that President Bush signed into law on December 19. Still left to be done by the Congress are an extension of renewable energy tax credits and a comprehensive climate change bill. The tax bill will be easy, in fact much of it had broad bipartisan and bicameral support, but was removed from consideration due to budgetary constraints. A climate bill will be much more difficult.

Prior to the recess, the Senate’s Environment and Public Works Committee passed the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, the first economy-wide climate change bill to make it to the Senate calendar. Now the attention shifts to the House, where Chairman John Dingell, the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Speaker Pelosi will all take center stage.

Here are some questions that should guide observers of the Congressional climate change debate in the coming year:

1) The House has many more coal, oil patch, and manufacturing state Democrats than the Senate. How much input will these members have in a bill? If their concerns are met, the final vote might be large and bi-partisan, but will this create “green” backlash since emission reductions might be more modest.

2) When will a House vote occur? With a Presidential election year, Congress might call it quits in early October, if a bill is not on the House or Senate floor by May, there might not be enough time for protracted conference negotiations and Presidential consideration.

3) Will politics trump policy? Will Democrats let President Bush sign a popular climate change bill if they know they can get an even stronger bill signed by a President Obama, President Clinton, or even a President McCain?

For further information about this topic, please contact Akin Gump.