In the run-up to the fourth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA), China, India and Brazil have sharply reiterated their views that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions lies, in the first instance, with developed countries.  The AWG-LCA, convened as part of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali Action Plan of December 2007, is charged with facilitating agreement on principles for long-term action to reduce GHG emissions, extending beyond the current Kyoto Protocol obligations, which are set to expire in 2012.  This agreement on principles is, under the Bali Action Plan, expected to be reached in time for the December 2009 UNFCCC Copenhagen summit.  In preparation for the fourth session of the AWG-LCA, scheduled to occur in Poznan, Poland during the first two weeks of December 2008, governmental parties to the UNFCCC are currently staking out their negotiating positions in formal submissions to the AWG-LCA.

A key-and highly controversial-aspect of AWG-LCA’s mandate is to articulate a long-term goal for emission reductions in light of the core UNFCCC principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” between developing and developed countries.  According to a submission of China to the AWG-LCA, dated September 28, 2008, developed countries must not only “take the lead” in reducing GHG emissions, but are also obligated to ensure “development rights and spaces for developing countries.”

India’s submission of October 17, 2008, shares similar themes, noting that “equity must be the central way forward.”  In India’s opinion, an equitable approach would mean accounting, among other things, for the historical responsibility of developed countries in building up current GHG concentrations and protecting the right of developing countries to sustained economic development.  This would mean, in light of India’s current low per-capita emissions, “a paradigm of convergence of per-capita emissions of developing and developed countries.”  Or, as Brazil stated in its September 30, 2008 submission, an equitable approach means accounting for the historical responsibility of developing countries, which “should contribute to the solution according to their contribution to the problem.”  In other words, long-term cooperative action would not necessarily preclude continued per-capita GHG emissions growth by developing countries and may even include it.

China’s submission also posits, before any concrete long-term goals can be set on GHG emissions reductions, that developed countries must commit to significant mid-term reduction goals.  India’s submission echoes this theme and further argues that immediate action is required to reverse the “alarming trend” of recent increases in total and per-capita GHG emissions in developed countries party to Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol.  According to India, urgent action is needed in these countries to alter current patterns of consumption and production, including lifestyles.  Further, absent such commitments by Annex I countries, long-term GHG reduction targets under the UNFCCC would “lack credibility.”

A related controversy that the AWG-LCA must manage is the suggested sub-categorization of developing countries, which would entail commitments by certain industrialized developing countries, like Mexico and South Africa, to specific GHG emissions reductions.  China has aggressively resisted sub-categorization, arguing in its submission to the AWG-LCA, that doing so would run counter to the “keystone” principle of common but differentiated responsibilities between developed and developing countries and would be contrary to the consensus reflected in the Bali Action Plan.

The U.S. has not formally responded in the AWG-LCA process to the Chinese, Indian and Brazilian submissions.  However, whatever the course of the AWG-LCA’s work, the positions of China, India and Brazil suggest major political challenges in the U.S. as a new Administration and Congress, in 2009, begin work on a national GHG emissions cap-and-trade scheme.  Currently, the leading legislative proposal, introduced earlier this month by Democratic Representatives Dingell and Boucher, would effectively sub-categorize developing countries in a manner inconsistent with China’s position before the AWG-LCA.  The bill would require the U.S. to determine which foreign countries are taking action “comparable” to the U.S. to mitigate climate change.  Products from countries found not to be taking comparable action-which may include China, India, and Brazil-would be subject to U.S. import penalties.  However, certain less-developed countries would be excluded from these provisions.

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