On Monday, December 1 the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commenced in Poznan, Poland.  The conference, if all goes as planned, will lay out a schedule for consensus on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol for agreement by December 2009 in Copenhagen.  While many see an agreement in the near future, many fear that a lack of U.S. support due to the recession and change of administration will hinder an international agreement.

During the first week of discussions, five major issues confronted conference participants:

1. Shared vision.  This issue, which encompasses both emissions reduction targets and the differentiated responsibilities for reaching those targets, has already received significant discussion at the conference, as the working group tasked with long-term cooperative action met on Tuesday, December 2. At that meeting, a number of proposals were issued: the Japanese endorsed a 50% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020, while the EC suggested a more ambitious 85% decline. The Chinese, while not endorsing a long-term goal, did support a 20-40% reduction by 2020; the Chinese also stressed equity issues, noting the divide between developing and developed country responsibility for historic emissions and pushing for industrialized countries to take dramatic action as a leadership gesture.
2. Tech transfer. Perhaps the most contentious issue at the conference is how to transfer low carbon technologies to developing nations. Strong words leading up to the COP from the Chinese and Indian governments threatening to undermine intellectual property rights and utilize compulsory licensing have laid the foundation for heated discussions during the second week of the conference.
3. Financing.  This issue is shaping up to be another contentious one, as developing countries push for further help in mitigating climate change, as well as adapting to its effects; at the same time, the global economic slowdown makes developed nations less interested in significant outlays of financial aid. Senator John Kerry, an observer at the conference and an ally of President-elect Barack Obama, said “The bottom line is we are not going to be in the position we were two years ago in the short term to do as much technology transfer or economic assistance in terms of transitional issues that might have led other countries to participate.”
4. Adaption.  Many developing countries are pushing for funding not just to prevent further greenhouse gas emission, but also to adapt to the effects of climate change that have already come.
5. Mitigation.  Though significant discussion on this topic is likely, many participants find it unlikely that hard emissions reduction targets will come out of the Poznan conference. So far, only European countries have committed to hard reduction targets, and it is unlikely that many other countries will join them.

Also hanging over this conference is the shadow of the coming change of administrations in the United States. While the Bush administration was largely a non-factor in international climate negotiations, President-elect Obama has already stated his preference for much more ambitious leadership under his administration, a statement which has already received considerable attention from Poznan attendees.

As discussions heat up during the final week of the conference, Akin Gump’s Senior Counsel Ken Markowitz is in Poznan where he will moderate a December 8 panel on the role of forestry in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the major role it plays in climate change. Ken will also provide updates to ClimateIntel on the latter stages of the conference proceedings, which are scheduled to end Friday, December 12. 

For further information about this topic, please contact Akin Gump.