The two-week Copenhagen climate change conference (COP15), part of the ongoing effort to negotiate a successor to the 2007 Kyoto Protocol, commenced this week.  Only a few days into COP15 the mood is less than optimistic and parties are not overly ambitious, leaving many to wonder whether a new agreement can be reached or whether COP15 will produce only another roadmap for a potential agreement. 

Delegates have been staking out their positions amidst discussions on long-term cooperative action, a shared vision, finance, mitigation and technology under the Ad Hoc Working Group on  Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA); Annex I emission reductions; and the potential consequences under the Ad Hoc Working Group - Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). Talks about the leaked “climate gate” e-mails abound and the leak of Danish text, that gives wealthier, industrialized nations more power, has already created a rift between industrialized and developing countries.  U.S., China, Brazil, India, etc., who have pledged new reduction targets, have been criticized for their lack of aggression in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 

At the helm, UN Climate Chief Yvo de Boer believes failure is not an option and an agreement is a must.  At a minimum, his focus includes the following:

1. How and to what extent industrialized countries will reduce their GHG emissions?
2. How China and India, and other major developing countries, will limit the growth of their emissions?
3. The origination of financing for developing countries that need assistance monetary assistance for GHG emission reduction and adaptation.
4. The management of money.

President Obama, Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson are scheduled to attend the final week of COP15.  The U.S. will likely discuss its new emission reduction target of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, with a trajectory to 42% reduction by 2030 to meet the goal of 83% by 2050, as well as actions taken by EPA to address GHG emissions.  While China has found the U.S.’s position to be underwhelming, State Department envoy Todd Stern fired a shot across China’s bow, declaring that the more advanced developing countries must reduce their GHG emissions and that the U.S. would not provide funds to China for development of greener industry.

COP15 concludes on Friday, December 18 and a final agreement appears highly unlikely.  With the U.S. and China seemingly drawing lines in the sand, the final week would seem to portend much in the way of atmospherics.

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